Kingfisher PLC: Limited scope for FY PBT upgrades at H1

Research evidence excerpt

Kingfisher PLC: Limited scope for FY PBT upgrades at H1

diluted) (GBX)

UBS Evidence Lab data: KGF taking the right steps but macro not supportive

From To % ch Cons.

National stats point to no clear signs of broader recovery: We analyse a whole set 01/27E 25.90 25.93 0 25.47

of national stats for a read on the broader market a) Barclaycard data suggest DIY and 01/28E 28.43 28.44 0 28.15

Home improvement were -0.1% for May/June, a slight improvement vs Barclaycard Q1 01/29E 31.20 31.22 0 30.95

of -2.6%; b) BRC shopping rankings suggest Furniture continues to deteriorate in spend

ranking; c) ONS housing transactions have been +16.6% in June but on the back of Yashraj Rajani, CFA

weak comps from last year post the stamp duty holiday; d) BDF data suggests May was Analyst

yashraj.rajani@ubs.com

-12.4% vs Q1 at -4.3%; d) Polish national stats data in 'Others' category which contains

+44-20-7901 5662

DIY/Furniture has shown a bit of an inflection but remains volatile. UBS Evidence Lab

analysis indicates KGF is taking the right steps: UK Trade Branch and competitive Sreedhar Mahamkali

incidence based on our proprietary data suggests that B&Q store overlap is the most Analyst

sreedhar.mahamkali@ubs.com

with Howdens but B&Q has a meaningfully lower cannibalisation rate putting them in a

+44-20-7568 8040

good spot to benefit from operational leverage with a housing cycle recovery. Screwfix is

now competitively positioned in almost every location vs a Toolstation, with a higher Fatima Ortiz Nunez

capacity share but still room to grow. Associate Analyst

fatima.ortiz-nunez@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 6085

PBT/EPS broadly unchanged for FY27e-29e, PT unchanged at 295p

We continue to expect Screwfix strength, volatile B&Q with seasonal better than