2Q26 Earnings: 2/3rds of the Banks Have Upgraded Guidance

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Earnings: 2/3rds of the Banks Have Upgraded Guidance

Idea

August 3, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Madrid Branch+MEuropean Banks | Europe Alvaro Serrano

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Earnings: 2/3rds of the Alvaro.Serrano@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +44 20 7425-6942

Franco Insausti, CFA

Equity AnalystBanks Have Upgraded Guidance Franco.Insausti@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3769

Giulia Aurora Miotto, CFA

PPOP was c.4% better on average, with 26 beats vs. 3 misses, Equity Analyst

Giulia.Aurora.Miotto@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-5344

driven by fees and markets, with NII also better on average. Noemi Peruch

Guidance upgrades were broad-based, while asset quality Equity Analyst

Noemi.Peruch@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3163

remained resilient and capital supported distributions. We retain Gulnara Saitkulova

our Attractive view on banks. EquityGulnara.Saitkulova@morganstanley.comAnalyst +44 20 7677-0313

Ned Tidmarsh

Key Takeaways ResearchNed.Tidmarsh@morganstanley.comAssociate +44 20 7425-0122

90% of the banks have beaten expectations, with 4% average PPOP beat, Almario Sulaj

marking the 30th consecutive quarter of PPOP beats. ResearchAlmario.Sulaj@morganstanley.comAssociate +44 20 7425-2049

Eurozone NII rose c. 3% QoQ, with better performance in France and Spain, with

Banks

UK more mixed and Nordics lagging. Europe

Industry View Attractive

Fees showed the strongest performance, led by Wealth, Asset Management and

capital markets; Barclays, UBS and DBK all beat IB revenue expectations.

Exhibit 1 : Better revenues continue to drive

2/3rds of the banks upgraded some parts of its guidance, including ING, SocGen,

PBT upgrades

Danske, Natwest, AIB, BOI, Eurobank and DBK, contrasting with a cautious 1Q26.