Earnings Previews: The Week Ahead – Europe | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

Earnings Previews: The Week Ahead – Europe | Europe

UpdateM

Leisure and Hotels

Flutter Entertainment Plc - MSe ($mn) 2Q26: EBITDA 484, with focus on

Prediction Markets, UK&I recovery and clarity on the FY26-27 bridge

Flutter Entertainment Plc

(FLTRF.L, Overweight)

Ed Young

EQUITY ANALYST

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Ed.Young@morganstanley.com

+44 20 7677 1761

Flutter reports Q2 results on Wednesday 5th August. For the US division, we model

EBITDA of $80m, below company guidance of ~$105m reflecting slightly weaker igaming

growth trends and adverse sports results (NBA Finals, World Cup player markets),

partially offset by an uptick in handle/engagement and lower Prediction Markets spend on

lower acquisition (we estimate $50m). We expect the benefit of PM market-making to be

immaterial in the quarter. This appears conservative from a year-on-year bridge, even

accounting for Prediction Markets investment, the year-on-year results swing, PokerStars

accounting impact and new state launch investment. For International, we forecast $467m

EBITDA (+18%), reflecting good market trends in the UK and Italy (though Snaitech's

platform transition appears to have caused some disruption in May), offset by the impact

of the UK tax increase. Thematically, we see three key areas to address: 1/ Prediction

Markets - while we expect a negligible impact in Q2, we see this as a material, high-margin

opportunity in the coming quarters and into 2027 and see management's posture

regarding PMs as a key swing factor for the stock; 2/ UK&I recovery – we note

management's confident tone regarding the Sky Bet replatforming and mitigation delivery

on our recent field trip; as Flutter's largest International division, outperformance could be