Kioxia Holdings (285A.T): Q1 slightly negative - Q1 results miss narrowly, Q2 guidance in line, buyback announced

Research evidence excerpt

Kioxia Holdings (285A.T): Q1 slightly negative - Q1 results miss narrowly, Q2 guidance in line, buyback announced

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31 Jul 2026 07:04:03 ET │ 10 pages

Kioxia Holdings (285A.T)

Q1 slightly negative - Q1 results miss narrowly, Q2 guidance in line,

buyback announced

CITI'S TAKE Buy / High Risk

Price (31 Jul 26 15:30) ¥46,500.0 Q1 non-GAAP OP was ¥1.33trn (OPM 75.0%), slightly missing VA

Target price ¥140,000.0 consensus of ¥1.38trn. Volume grew QoQ by low single digits, while ASP

rose c70%, with volume slightly weaker than expected. Management said Expected share price 201.1%

some projects shifted from Q1 to Q2. Q2 guidance calls for 35% QoQ sales return

growth and non-GAAP OP of ¥1.9trn (OPM 78.7%), which we view as in line Expected dividend yield 2.2%

with expectations. ASP is slated to contribute more than volume (we Expected total return 203.2%

estimate volume growth of just under 10% QoQ, ASP growth just over Market Cap ¥25,482,694M

20%, FX +1%). The company also announced an ¥800bn buyback from US$159,731M

August 3 to October 30, representing c3% of market cap based on July 31

closing price. While Kioxia previously planned to begin shareholder returns

in FY3/28, it has brought this forward in response to the stock price

decline. On LTAs, Kioxia remains on track toward 50% coverage for 2027- Takero FujiwaraAC

2028 and noted demand for even longer agreements. +81-3-6776-4642

takero.fujiwara@citi.com

Implications — We view the results as slightly negative owing to slight miss in Q1

earnings and the lack of surprises in Q2 guidance. However, we foresee no major

impact on consensus forecasts and expect some support from the buyback program

in the near term. Management's indication that supply-demand conditions will

remain tight through 2027 provides reassurance.