AXA SA (AXAF.PA): 2Q results first thoughts: Substantially in-line, small beat on solvency, slowdown at XL likely the main focus

First-page research excerpt

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31 Jul 2026 02:06:28 ET │ 11 pages

AXA SA (AXAF.PA)

2Q results first thoughts: Substantially in-line, small beat on solvency,

slowdown at XL likely the main focus

CITI'S TAKE

1H earnings look pretty much as expected with little to really call out at

first look. The P&C CY attritional loss ratio increased 40bps ex Prima y-o-y

mostly due to Middle East losses of €0,1bn at XL, with Retail improving

20bps and Commercial ex XL improving 50bps. Focus is likely to be on the

sequential slowdown in premium growth at XL Insurance. CSM was a

slight beat on positive operating variances, while the S2 ratio came in 3pts

stronger on unspecified positive operating variances. Outlook comments

are consistent with expectations and there is no update at this point on

cash remittances. Overall these look substantially in-line, ahead of the

new 3-year plan in September.

Buy

Price (30 Jul 26 17:30)

Target price

Expected share price return

Expected dividend yield

Expected total return

Market Cap

James A ShuckAC

Earnings summary — 1H Underlying Earnings are in-line with consensus with

Holdings and P&C a touch worse and L&H a bit better. In P&C, the 1H COR was inline with expectations with Nat Cats a bit better and PYD a bit lower. The CY

attritional Loss Ratio was 40bps better than expected, improving 40bps y-o-y

helped by the inclusion of Prima which benefited the loss ratio by 60bps and

increased the expense ratio by 40bps. Ex Prima the CY attritional LR increased

40bps due to Axa XL (+1.1pts on €0.1bn of ME losses), and improved 20pbs in Retail

and 50bps in Commercial ex XL. Commercial P&C premium growth slowed from

+3% at Q1 to +1% at 1H due to XL (+2% to -1%), Retail premium growth of 8% was up

from +7% at Q1 helped by 4% nominal rate increases. L&H was a 4% beat on

Underlying Earnings due to better ST technical result. NBV was a 3% miss. CSM was

a 2% beat and saw a positive €0.7bn operating variance. Solvency was 3% higher

than consensus on unspecified model changes.

Implications — Increased signs of a slowdown at XL but otherwise a largely in-line

set of results.

AXA SA (EUR)

Year to 31 Dec

2024A

2025A

2026E

2027E

2028E

Operating Profit (€M)

Diluted EPS (€)

10,701.0

3.59

…