Accor SA (ACCP.PA): Model Update

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31 Jul 2026 01:33:42 ET │ 13 pages

Accor SA (ACCP.PA)

Model Update

CITI'S TAKE

We update our model for H1 results, which saw EBITDA come in slightly

better than expected due to: 1) strong cost control in response to demand

headwinds, and 2) a better-than-expected result in Incentive

Management Fees, with the USA helping offset the Middle East. As a

result, we raise our FY26/27/28E adjusted EBITDA estimates by

+1.7%/+1.1%/+1.1%. Following the confirmation of a definitive binding

agreement for the disposal of Essendi, we now model Accor without

Essendi. Reflecting the expected launch of a €500m buyback in FY27E,

we increase our adjusted EPS forecasts for FY26/27/28E by

+0.9%/+4.3%/+6.0%. On unchanged valuation methodology our Target

Price moves up to €61 (vs €60 earlier). We continue to like Accor for its

accelerating Net Unit Growth (with the +40bps of incremental churn from

the Revo portfolio an industry-wide one-off), demand recovery when

geopolitics stabilizes, and strong excess capital returns. Reiterate Buy.

Buy

Price (30 Jul 26 17:30)

Target price

from €60.00

Expected share price return

Expected dividend yield

Expected total return

Market Cap

Leo CarringtonAC

Accor SA (EUR)

Year to 31 Dec

2024A

2025A

2026E

2027E

2028E

Sales (€M)

5,606.0

5,639.0

5,743.9

6,146.2

6,495.4

843.0

714.0

800.3

973.2

1,107.8

Diluted EPS (€)

1.57

1.83

2.21

2.81

3.50

Diluted EPS (Old) (€)

1.57

2.19

2.69

3.30

PE (x)

29.4

25.2

20.9

16.5

13.2

EV/EBITDA (x)

12.0

11.3

11.2

10.5

9.8

DPS (€)

1.26

1.35

1.53

1.69

2.03

Net Div Yield (%)

2.7

2.9

3.3

3.6

4.4

Profit Before Tax (€M)