Mineral Resources (MIN.AX): 4Q FY26 result: Fe/Li volume & cost beat; FY26 guidance achieved; upgrade to Neutral

First-page research excerpt

Equity Research

29 July 2026 | 11:07PM AEST

Mineral Resources (MIN.AX): 4Q FY26 result: Fe/Li volume & cost beat;

FY26 guidance achieved; upgrade to Neutral

MIN reported a strong 4Q FY26 to close out the financial year (ahead of GSe and

Visible Alpha Consensus Data estimates, see Exhibit 3), with FY26 volume and cost

guidance achieved or exceeded across all business segments, reporting record

annual volumes for Mining Services (341Mt), Iron Ore (29.5Mt attributable) and

Lithium (~600kt 6% Li2O). The bottom line is that MIN has executed strongly on

project ramp-ups (Onslow, Wodgina) and deleveraging, with net debt reduced to

~A$4.3bn (down >A$1bn YoY) and liquidity strengthened to A$2.4bn (including

A$1.6bn cash). The refinancing of high-cost debt with the US$1.3bn notes issuance,

full repayment of the iron ore prepayment, and reduction in the Onslow carry loan to

A$335mn are all incremental positives for the balance sheet. With the stock

retracing ~25% from the highs seen in June, on the back of lower iron ore (61% and

58% Fe) and lithium prices (in our view), and now trading below our revised PT, we

upgrade MIN to Neutral (from Sell).

Paul Young

+61(2)9321-8302 |

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Chris Bulgin

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Hugo Nicolaci

+61(2)9321-8323 |

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Key takeaways:

n Mining Services: Record quarterly production of 94Mt (+13%/+17% vs. GSe/

Visible Alpha Consensus Data), driven by higher Onslow volumes and increased

strip activity at Mt Marion. FY26 volumes of 341Mt (+22% YoY) was 3% above

the recently upgraded 320-330Mt guidance range (and GSe of 329Mt). Two new

JV contracts (rehabilitation, ore sorting) commenced and one external crushing

contract was renewed.

n

Onslow iron ore: Shipped a record 9.6Mt (100% basis) for the 4Q in-line with

our estimate, an annualised run-rate of ~38.4Mtpa, bringing FY26 attributable

shipments to 19.7Mt and exceeding the upgraded 17.7-19.4Mt guidance range.

FY26 FOB cost of A$52/wmt came in below the A$54-59/wmt guidance range

and our A$54/t estimate. The sixth transhipper arrived in May and is in full

…