F3/27 1Q Results: Guidance Hike Reflects Earnings Overshoot, Buyback Scale Increased too

Research evidence excerpt

F3/27 1Q Results: Guidance Hike Reflects Earnings Overshoot, Buyback Scale Increased too

Update

July 30, 2026 09:54 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MMizuho Financial Group (8411) | Japan Mia Nagasaka

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results: Guidance Hike Mia.Nagasaka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8406

Reflects Earnings Overshoot,

Buyback Scale Increased too

Mizuho Financial Group (8411.T, 8411 JT)

Banks | Japan

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View Attractive

Strengthens our thesis Meaningful upside Meaningful revision higher Price target ¥9,200

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026) ¥7,818

consensus EPS Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥19,064.4

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥61.8

Key Takeaways

Mizuho has raised F3/27 targets to ¥1.75trn for consol. net profit from operations

(from ¥1.63trn) and ¥1.4trn for consol. NP (¥1.3trn).

Increased share buybacks mark a welcome start for additional returns, and we

reiterate our OW rating.

F3/27 1Q results overview: 1) Upward revision to full-year plan: Besides

overshooting in 1Q, we understand the guidance hike to reflect effects of the Jun BoJ

rate hike (we estimate ~¥80bn in the net profit from operations line), and healthy

market operations in particular. Even so, we still view guidance as conservative with

no changes made to credit cost assumptions, the plan for equity-related gains/losses

(1Q result was ¥30.5bn, FY target is ¥360bn), or FX assumptions (¥150/US$). We

believe the firm has taken a cautious stance on credit costs as it monitors

developments at mid-size companies and SMEs. 2) Shareholder return: Mizuho has