Altria (MO.N): EPS miss and absence of top-end FY EPS guidance raise unhelpful. Stock likely to trade lower.

Research evidence excerpt

Altria (MO.N): EPS miss and absence of top-end FY EPS guidance raise unhelpful. Stock likely to trade lower.

Altria (MO.N)

30 July 2026 Citi Research

• Combustible volumes down -4.5% vs market at -5%; discount share gains continue – In the Smokeable Products

segment, Q2 revenues came to $4,660m up +2.0% YoY, driven by higher pricing partly offset by lower shipment

volumes, greater promotional investment and an adverse mix shift toward discount products. Domestic cigarette

shipment volumes declined -3.2% YoY. Adjusting for trade inventory movements, combustible volumes were down an

estimated -4.5%. This compared to total industry volumes estimated at -5%. Marlboro shipment volumes declined

7.4% YoY, while Marlboro retail share was 39.5%, down 150bps YoY and 20bps sequentially. Industry discount

cigarette share reached 33.8%, up 260bps YoY and 50bps QoQ, highlighting continued down-trading. Altria’s

discount cigarette share increased to 3.9% from 2.0% a year ago, driven by continued momentum in Basic.

• Oral Tobacco revenues down -5.2%; on! volume below consensus – In Oral Tobacco Products, Q2 revenues were

$690m, down -5.2% YoY, reflecting lower shipment volumes and higher promotional investments, partly offset by

pricing. Shipment volumes declined -8.5% YoY; adjusting for trade inventory movements, volumes were down an

estimated -2%. on! shipment volumes declined -4.2% YoY to 49.9m cans, although retail share of the total oral

tobacco category increased 30bps YoY and 80bps sequentially to 8.6%. Within nicotine pouches, on! share was

14.4%, down 170bps YoY but up 100bps QoQ, suggesting some stabilization in competitive positioning sequentially.

The nicotine pouch category represented 59.9% of the oral tobacco market, up 810bps YoY and 180bps QoQ.

Figure 1.