Drax Group Plc (DRX.L): 1H26 - Long-term guidance upgrade to reflect recent transactions

Research evidence excerpt

Drax Group Plc (DRX.L): 1H26 - Long-term guidance upgrade to reflect recent transactions

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30 Jul 2026 03:08:26 ET │ 11 pages

Drax Group Plc (DRX.L)

1H26 - Long-term guidance upgrade to reflect recent transactions

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral Drax reported 1H26 EBITDA of £279m (vs CITIe £270m and consensus

of £284m), EPS of 29.8p (vs CITIe of 26.5p), and Net Debt of £1,025m (vs Price (29 Jul 26 16:30) £7.60

CITIe of £977m). For FY26, Drax confirmed company expectation for Target price £8.14

Adjusted EBITDA is broadly in-line with company-compiled consensus Expected share price return 7.1%

range (£655m average vs. CITIe of £688m). The company also updated its Expected dividend yield 4.2%

medium term outlook, now targeting 2029 Adjusted EBITDA of £650- Expected total return 11.3%

800m in 2029, including battery transactions already announced, but

Market Cap £2,558M excluding the BSIF deal. We forecast the BSIF transaction to add

US$3,420M c.£160m+ EBITDA in FY29, effectively taking the new guide to c.£800m-

£950bn with the BSIF deal. Our current FY29 EBITDA including all

transactions stand towards the bottom end of the new implied range at

£850m. We are mostly below company guide on pellet production. There Jenny PingAC

is no new announcement around its DC development pipeline. The +44-207-986-6974

company is planning a CMD in November to update market further. jenny.ping@citi.com

Marc Ip Tat Kuen

Implications — Overall, the upgraded EBITDA guide should help to support shares +44-20-7508-9453

following recent weakness and in the context of lagging consensus numbers that

marc.iptatkuen@citi.com

need to catch up to include transactions announced. The market continues to wait

for further development around DC, which doesn't appear to be imminent.

Drax Group Plc (GBP)