Amazon.com Updating Our AWS Backlog Construct

Research evidence excerpt

Amazon.com Updating Our AWS Backlog Construct

celeration for the balance of the year and into 2027 remains valid.

E-commerce Estimates Moves Modestly Higher on US Prime Day Momentum

Our e-commerce estimates modestly come up as we see the potential for demand pull

forward driven by its US Prime Day event in June compared to the regular July timing.

We also contemplate higher operating costs (primarily in shipping) as oil prices in April

hovered around ~$100 per barrel before leveling in May and falling further in June as

uncertainties around the Iran War stabilized. Nonetheless this does not preclude oil

prices from rebounding in July as geopolitical tensions remain high, hence we find no

reason to revise down our shipping cost estimates for now which should also weigh on

segment margins in the near-term as Amazon is expected to host a Prime Day in

Australia, Brazil, India, and Japan in 3Q26.

Advertising Moves up Driven by Prime Day and World Cup

As we noted in our ad expert compilation note (US Internet "2Q26 Advertising Expert

Calls Compilation: Bouncing Off the April-May Trough" published July 2, 2026), we

caught up with 7 experts who have visibility into $9B+ in digital advertising spend. The

checks are heavily skewed towards the US market and with comparatively larger

advertisers, which could result in some distorted views. We present simple averages (not

weighted) from their 2Q26 spend as well as initial projections for 3Q26 and updated

forecasts on 2026. Note that the averages have been adjusted in the event that an

expert did not provide historical views or were absent in our latest call series which may

cause some disconnect with previously published figures. Please reach out to the team if

you would like a copy of the complete data set (unadjusted).