Inspire Medical Systems Inc: Searching for Inspiration; Sell at $39

Research evidence excerpt

Inspire Medical Systems Inc: Searching for Inspiration; Sell at $39

the Genio device (launched in the US in 2H25), LIVN enters the HGNS market with 12/26E

the highly-differentiated aura6000 in 2027, and oral therapeutic options to treat From To % ch Cons.

Q1E (0.09) (0.39) NM (0.39)

OSA (à la Apnimed Oxnimbi) receive FDA approval and provide patients with a

Q2E 0.33 (0.27) NM (0.28)

much less invasive treatment option.

Q3E 0.36 0.07 -80 0.09

3. The ongoing coding and reimbursement challenges that first began in Q4E 0.78 0.84 8 0.86

November of last year and have since become central parts of the INSP investment 12/26E 1.38 0.26 -81 0.42

thesis. A potential ~10-50% cut to physician payment rates instituted by select 12/27E 2.35 0.43 -82 1.16

12/28E 2.85 0.87 -69 1.88

MACs could further limit HGNS adoption, especially if the other MACs follow suit.

Moreover, a permanent solution (i.e. Category I CPT Code Creation) is contingent Patrick Wood

upon approval from the September AMA-CPT Editorial Panel, which would not Analyst

become effective until early 2028. patrick.wood@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3018

4. The overall misalignment of Street estimates, implying a quick rebound in US

Daniella Paretti sales growth (-8% in FY26 to +4% in FY27 and +7% in FY28) and simultaneous

Associate Analyst

higher SG&A conversion rate (every $1 of SG&A expected to generate $3.20 in

daniella.paretti@ubs.com

Sales vs $1.52 historically). We view this as an unlikely combination, as competitive +1-212-713 1398

threats and coding challenges are not going away anytime soon. Our sales ests.

Priya Sachdeva are -2% and -4% below Street in '27-28.

Analyst

priya.sachdeva@ubs.comValuation: In 2027, we trade potential coding/billing clarity for a more competitive

+1-212-713 4193