Caixa Bank: 2Q26 review - Unexpected travel and arrive?

Research evidence excerpt

Caixa Bank: 2Q26 review - Unexpected travel and arrive?

Global Research

29 July 2026ab

Caixa Bank Equities

Spain2Q26 review - Unexpected travel and arrive?

Banks, Ex-S&L

12-month rating Neutral

2Q26 review - unexpected travel and arrive?

Based on our conversations, in the context of a 25% rally in the quarter and trading at 12m price target €12.40

the highest PE within Europe before the print, CABK's 7% share decline post 2Q results Prior : €12.35

(vs -1% SX7P) responds to investors seeing management's "reluctance" to skew

Price (29 Jul 2026) €12.26

YE27/28E NII consensus to the upside under current yield curve conditions as a signal

about positive EPS revisions (15% YTD, 5% QTD) appearing harder to come by. With RIC: CABK.MC BBG: CABK SM

volume/margin trends/comments and market rate forecasts in line or better with those

Trading data and key metrics

in place 3 months ago, we are somewhat surprised by what felt as more defensive

52-wk range €13.30-8.11

language, with a glass half full reading pointing towards conservatism and a glass half

empty one suggesting consensus looking more realistic after YTD upgrades, reduced Market cap. €87.2b/US$99.3b

confidence on Euribor forecasts and/or risk of bottom up trends worsening beyond Shares o/s 7,118m (ORD)

YE26E (deposit pricing?). Though we do not expect consensus to move much, and still Free float 41%

see CABK as a premium EPS/ROTE story, visibility on the glass half full reading being Avg. daily volume ('000) 6,439

accurate might be needed for outperformance to resume. Avg. daily value (m) €77.1

Common s/h equity (12/26E) €40.2b

What is happening in both ends of the balance sheet? P/BV (12/26E) 2.1x

Loan growth sped up (7.8% vs. 7% in 1Q, 4.4% 2Q25), fuelled by international Tier 1 ratio 15%