First Read Intesa SanPaolo: 2Q26 - 10% earnings beat vs consensus, sequential NII/loan growth inflection

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Intesa SanPaolo: 2Q26 - 10% earnings beat vs consensus, sequential NII/loan growth inflection

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation -

Forecast dividend yield -

Forecast stock return -

Market return assumption 8.0%

Forecast excess return -

Company Description

Intesa Sanpaolo is the largest bank in Italy in terms of volumes and branches, with 19%

market share after the UBI acquisition in 2020. In addition to retail and commercial banking

operations, Intesa's divisions include corporate and investment banking, private banking,

asset management, and insurance. The bank has also operations in several CEE countries and

Egypt.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

ISP: Valuation method: We have used the traditional Gordon growth methodology for

valuation. We are advocates of ROTE being the main driver for valuation multiples. We clean

profits from non-recurrent items and deduct AT1 coupons to get to our adjusted returns. To

determine whether banks have excess or shortfall of capital, which we value at 1x PTBV, we

use a 13.0% fully loaded CET1 threshold. Risks: Intesa is exposed to macro risks, asset quality

risks, unexpected changes in interest rates, slow-down of the saving industry, developments

in CEE, risk from insurance activities, regulatory and operational risks and potential M&A

activity with positive or negative implications for shareholders.

Banks are exposed to a wide range of risks, including credit and interest rate risk, and

exchange rate volatility. They are also regulated, and, in recent years, regulatory changes have

been sweeping and somewhat unpredictable. We also note climate-specific and other ESG-

related tail risks at sector level. We generally value the banks based on a one-stage Gordon