Elia Group Our thoughts on a c5% share price decline

Research evidence excerpt

Elia Group Our thoughts on a c5% share price decline

Global Research

29 July 2026ab

Elia Group Equities

BelgiumOur thoughts on a c5% share price decline

Electric Utilities

12-month rating Neutral

What happened?

Today, Elia reported H1 results with a small 5% miss vs UBSe at the net income level. Elia 12m price target €142.00

hosted a conference call with management (see our feedback here) and the overall tone

was reassuring, in our view. The shares are down 4.9% today, underperforming the

Price (28 Jul 2026) €136.00

sector by c400bps. We do not see the share price underperformance as justified by a

miss at H1 results. In this note, we discuss investor feedback and our response. We also RIC: ELI.BR BBG: ELI BB

would flag the limited liquidity of Elia's shares.

Trading data and key metrics

52-wk range €141.40-92.95

Feedback 1: 2026 German capex was cut by €0.3bn/4%, should we extrapolate

it? Market cap. €14.8b/US$16.9b

Shares o/s 109m (ORD)

Our answer: We would not extrapolate the capex cut beyond 2026. The CFO stated that

Free float 37%

roughly one-quarter of the reduction is due to capex savings (which are a full pass

through to end customers, so Elia does not benefit) and three-quarters reflecting project Avg. daily volume ('000) 92.2

and payment rescheduling into future years. Elia stated that it "reflects project phasing Avg. daily value (m) €12.5

effects, optimised payment schedules and procurement efficiencies across certain major Common s/h equity (12/26E) €9.55b

offshore projects". Management flagged that the revised 2026 capex does not change P/BV (12/26E) 1.6x

the underlying investment programme, and reiterated the capex target of €31.6bn until Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 7.6x

2028. A capex trim is small and accounts for c1% of the 2024-28 capex plan. We would