AMZN, EBAY, ETSY, and W: Rising tide

Research evidence excerpt

AMZN, EBAY, ETSY, and W: Rising tide

29 July 2026

Price Target Change

US Internet

US eCommerce stocks are getting some love again amidst positive data points at the sector Nikhil Devnani, CFA

+1 917 344 8425 and company-level. Based on preliminary data, we estimate US eCommerce grew 11% in

nikhil.devnani@bernsteinsg.com Q2, buoyed by sales events and accelerating from Q1 and 5-6% observed in prior quarters.

The fundamental outlook is more favorable for the group heading into the prints (we raise

Mark Shmulik GMV estimates), which also means higher expectations. Despite all this, for the eCommerce

+1 917 344 8508

mark.shmulik@bernsteinsg.com bellwether that is Amazon, the debate remains AWS, not Retail. Sign of the times.

Amazon — AWS the focus. Q2 AWS expectations are elevated following strong GCP Peter Weed

+1 917 344 8390 results, with the bar now looking at mid-30s+ AWS growth. Suddenly, Amazon’s ‘not one

peter.weed@bernsteinsg.com model to rule them all’ mantra appears prescient, and investors will look for Bedrock

momentum data points underneath the headline number. AWS margins could see modest

Nathan Gee pressure in Q2 due to SBC timing before improving in 3Q. On CapEx, we do not expect a +1 917 344 8573

nathan.gee@bernsteinsg.com meaningful increase to 2026 guidance, although the worst keep secret on the Street is

that 2027 likely go up significantly for everyone, with Amazon's recent capacity expansion

Deeksha Pandey plans and debt-financing activities as evidence. Retail trends may be somewhat noisy due

+1 917 344 8447 to Prime Day timing shifts and Shein competition. Despite these debates, we continue to deeksha.pandey@bernsteinsg.com

favor Amazon, due to is its scale, supply-chain relationships enabling it to build AI capacities