First Read aberdeen H1 2026 - A cost-driven beat; Flow momentum in Adviser remains challenged

Research evidence excerpt

First Read aberdeen H1 2026 - A cost-driven beat; Flow momentum in Adviser remains challenged

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation -9.1%

Forecast dividend yield 6.5%

Forecast stock return -2.5%

Market return assumption 9.1%

Forecast excess return -11.6%

Company Description

abrdn plc is a UK-based investment management company consisting of three business

vectors: Investments, Personal and Adviser. Its Investments vector is responsible for managing

retail, institutional and insurance mandates. Its Personal vector comprises its financial

planning business and Interactive Investor. Finally, its Adviser vector is abrdn's financial adviser

business providing platform services to wealth managers and advisers.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

For abrdn, the main negative risk to our earnings forecasts and target price is a decline in the

level of global stock markets. In addition, any deterioration in investment performance could

hit company net fund flows and performance fees. There is a risk of value erosion if excess

cash were to be spent on an over-priced deal, or if management failed to successfully

integrate an acquisition. Against this, there could be upside risk to our target price if stronger

equity market appreciation, fund flows or performance fees were to lead to higher-than-

expected earnings. We also allow for Including performance risk, regulatory risk, reputational

risk, currency risk, conduct risk and market risk.

Our valuation for abrdn is derived through a sum-of-the-parts valuation (SOTP) whereby we

combine the liquidation or cash generative value to its third party stakes and use a discounted

cash flow model to value its operating business.

First Read: aberdeen 29 July 2026 ab 3