Pole Position: UBS European & US Autos Daily

Research evidence excerpt

Pole Position: UBS European & US Autos Daily

Brembo results today. Earnings out around noon, call at

14.30h CET

What do we expect for Q2?

We forecast revenue of €942mn, +1.9% y/y, outperforming S&P Global LVP adjusted for

their footprint. We anticipate EBITDA at €155mn, or ~16.5% margin, which is in line

with FY guidance. We expect Aftermarket business to remain as a tailwind versus a more

challenging production environment. China is expected to perform well in FY26,

however management mentioned that Q2 will be the moment of truth with a soft in Q1

in the region due to pull forward of demand in Q4. Given the recent profit warning from

BMW, with China at the center, we maintain a cautious stance. Investor focus is likely to

remain on new product developments, including any reference to order intake and new

clients.

What about the outlook?

We anticipate no changes following the Q1 guidance upgrade: (i) revenue growth of

+3% on a like-for-like FX basis (vs. in line with FY25 previously), (ii) an EBITDA margin of

~16.5% (unchanged), (iii) capex of ~€350mn (unchanged), and (iv) net financial debt

below €700mn (unchanged).

We remain constructive on the name. Near-term catalysts are primarily centred on

developments in China—both the recovery in the premium segment and progress with

local OEMs—as well as the initial earnings contribution from new products such as

Sensify and Greentell. We believe the market will look for tangible evidence of progress

on these fronts, alongside greater clarity on the recently announced JVs in China and

India, which is likely to have a limited contribution until 2027-2028.

During Q2, Brembo announced strategic JVs aimed at strengthening its presence in key

growth markets and advancing its technology roadmap. In China, it partnered with