First Read: Nexi SpA 1H 2026 First Read

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Nexi SpA 1H 2026 First Read

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 46.8%

Forecast dividend yield 0.0%

Forecast stock return 46.8%

Market return assumption 7.9%

Forecast excess return 38.8%

Company Description

Nexi is an Italian PSP, providing merchant and issuer services, historically operating primarily in

Italy, but more recently expanding via M&A (combining with Nets and SIA in 2021). Nexi's

formation dates back many decades to ICBPI, formed by a consortium of banks, and

combined with CartaSi in 2008.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Risks to our price target and rating include: A significant deterioration in consumer spending

trends, as the majority of revenues are calculated as a percent of payment volume (which can

decline in a turndown). Specifically, Nexi is highly exposed to Italy, and concerns around the

fiscal situation play into the potential impacts downstream to businesses and consumers if

things were to deteriorate further. Deal integration is a risk for Nexi given its acquisition of

both SIA and Nets, running simultaneously, which is key to unlocking value. Rising interest

rates create a degree of refinancing risk (however Nexi is well placed to deal with upcoming

maturities). The payments industry long term is subject to conversations around

commoditization in its core markets, and additionally the prospect of new age competitors

with more modern technology disrupting their existing legacy technology stack - these

represent operational risks for Nexi as a company. Valuation is based on a multiples approach

(equal weight FCF and EPS - we incorporate FCF given the adjustments to EPS and OMDA are

on the higher side), using forward multiples. Our approach is informed by an illustrative DCF

analysis as well to supplement.