Viva Energy Group: JQ26 Result: Shift in retail conversion strategy

Research evidence excerpt

Viva Energy Group: JQ26 Result: Shift in retail conversion strategy

lift in sales. We consider this strategic pivot a prudent step to continue high-grading

EPS (UBS, diluted) (A$)

the network, albeit in a capital-light approach. With VEA finally entering an earnings

From To % ch Cons.

upgrade cycle via a stronger outlook in C&I and E&I, we maintain our Buy rating.

12/26E 0.36 0.39 8 0.33

12/27E 0.28 0.29 3 0.22

An improving outlook for C&I and refining

12/28E 0.21 0.21 2 0.23

Industry feedback suggests VEA may capture opps to continue to grow share & EBITDA

in C&I as some larger fuel buyers (partic. in the agri & mining sectors) who historically Tom Allen

relied heavily on access to regional spot markets for competitively priced fuel, now may Analyst

tom.allen@ubs.com

see value in contracting a portion of fuel supply with a larger, reliable supplier (like VEA)-

+61-3-9242 6237

-in response to supply chain challenges over 1H26. In addition to a stronger C&I outlook,

we lift 2H GRM to $19/bbl (from $16/bbl) and continue to see upside risk based on Shaun Cousins

current regional spot cracks exceeding US$40/bbl (see Figure 9Minas321vsVEAGRM(US$/bl)ConsensusforecastsasumeaUS$16.1/blGRMover2H26.) and Singapore diesel/jet Analyst

shaun.cousins@ubs.com

prices again >$160/bbl as supply chain pressures in the Middle East return. With

+61-2-9324 3844

consensus pricing in LT refining margins at the current FSSP support level only (A$15.90/

bbl), we see potential for LT cons upgrades as Gov focus on expanding liquid fuel Harry Glass

storage (& possibly refinery expansions) in support of Australia's energy security needs Associate Analyst

harry.glass@ubs.com

justifies stronger LT earnings from E&I.

+61-3-9242 6053

Valuation: $2.80/sh (prior $2.70/sh); lift 2026E EPS 8%