Methanex Corporation: 2Q about in-line; Delevering with excess cash

Research evidence excerpt

Methanex Corporation: 2Q about in-line; Delevering with excess cash

Global Research

28 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesMethanex Corporation

2Q about in-line; Delevering with excess cash Americas

Chemicals, Commodity

12-month rating Buy

Our Take

We expect a mixed reaction to results. Methanex 2Q EBITDA $577M was slightly 12m price target US$70.00

below $582M cons, on realized pricing of $529/MT, which was in-line with

consensus. Methanex produced tons sold were 6% below consensus, which

Price (28 Jul 2026) US$53.20

appeared primarily linked with unplanned downtime at MEOH Beaumont, which

has now restarted. MEOH doesn't give explicit guidance, but we think investors RIC: MEOH.O BBG: MEOH US

will focus primarily on the 3Q pricing outlook which at $472/MT midpoint is Trading data and key metrics

5% above cons. MEOH fully repaid its Term Loan A ($290M) in 2Q, and we think

52-wk range US$65.72-32.46

with continued higher pricing, MEOH FCF generation will make solid progress

Market cap. US$4.11b

toward the next maturity in 2027 ($700M). With leverage now at ~2.4x on a

Shares o/s 77.3m (COM)

trailing basis and we model ~1.5x by year end, we think this could provide more

cash optionality later this year Free float 100%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 914

MEOH reiterated expectations for 9 mil tons of methanol production for the year Avg. daily value (m) US$51.3

and 0.3 mil tons of ammonia, despite shutting down the Titan facility (860kT) as of Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$2.98b

July 15 (prior update noted minimal EBITDA contribution from the facility). We P/BV (12/26E) 1.4x

previously took this out of our model starting in 4Q, so this leaves a ~200kT gap vs

Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.9x

our prior production estimates. This was partially offset by better operations at