Axalta Coating Systems Ltd: Better Performance Sales/Mix lifts estimates

Research evidence excerpt

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd: Better Performance Sales/Mix lifts estimates

Global Research

28 July 2026ab

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd Equities

United StatesBetter Performance Sales/Mix lifts estimates

Chemicals, Specialty

12-month rating Neutral

Our View

We maintain our Neutral rating on AXTA but lift our estimates for 2026/2027 to 12m price target US$39.00

reflect better price/cost management than expected. AXTA 2Q EBITDA beat our Prior : US$37.00

expectation by ~$14M with the main delta in Performance Coatings sales and

Price (28 Jul 2026) US$35.44

margins which came in ~3% and ~130 bps above our expectations, respectively.

Refinish in North America remains weaker, but growth ex-NA lifted Refinish sales RIC: AXTA.N BBG: AXTA US

to Y/Y growth for the first time in ~6 quarters. This should be more encouraging

Trading data and key metrics

for 2H sales, as Refinish comps are easy and supports Y/Y growth. Stronger pricing

52-wk range US$35.57-25.44

out the gate in Performance should also provide more of a buffer for some of the

formula price lags in Mobility, helping AXTA move above the bottom end of their Market cap. US$7.61b

guidance. We raise our 2026/27 EBITDA estimates 1%/3% reflecting slightly Shares o/s 215m (COM)

better Refinish volume outlook and higher margins. We maintain our Neutral Free float 99%

rating as we wait for more visibility on AXTA/Akzo deal, and prefer to have firmer Avg. daily volume ('000) 567

visibility on price/cost dynamics over the next 6-12 months. AXTA/Akzo vote is Avg. daily value (m) US$17.9

next Wednesday, with the next milestone after that being regulatory clearance Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$2.82b

which could require some remedies. AXTA/Akzo continue to indicate end of 2026/ P/BV (12/26E) 2.7x

early 2027 deal close timeline.