Arca Continental Pullback Improves the Risk/Reward, But Not Enough; Stay Neutral Post 2Q

Research evidence excerpt

Arca Continental Pullback Improves the Risk/Reward, But Not Enough; Stay Neutral Post 2Q

th estimate from +1.7% to +0.4%, reflecting the continued soft

12/27E 13.63 13.13 -4 13.74

consumer backdrop, weaker flavored CSD trends and a lower price/mix outlook as

12/28E 14.77 14.25 -4 14.35

inflation moderates. In the U.S., we also lowered our FY26 volume estimate from

+1.8% to +0.5%, amid persistent pressure on both the Hispanic and broader Rodrigo Alcantara

consumer, although AC’s commercial execution and pricing initiatives should Analyst

continue to provide some support. These revisions are partly offset by South rodrigo.alcantara@ubs.com

America, where Peru has emerged as the region’s main growth engine, while +55-11-2767 6324

Argentina should benefit from easier comparisons heading into 2H after a Kevin Zavala

particularly weak 1H26. On margins, our base case now points to flattish EBITDA Associate Analyst

margins in FY26, with expansion resuming in 2027, albeit with the risk of further kevin.zavala@ubs.com

downward revisions driven by higher PET and aluminum prices. +55-11-2767 6176

Takeaways from Our Follow-Up Call with AC

Mexico Volumes. Underlying demand improved sequentially through the

quarter, with volumes moving from roughly -3% in April-May to +3% in June,

supported by the world cup and easy comparisons. July has also started on a

positive note, although management cautioned against extrapolating recent

trends. Importantly, AC successfully implemented the excise tax-related price

increase (roughly +8%) while continuing to gain market share across

categories. We also note that the on-premise channel, which was the weakest

Highlights (Pm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E