Tungsten expert call: Supply tightness persists, seasonal recovery ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Tungsten expert call: Supply tightness persists, seasonal recovery ahead

Global Research

28 July 2026ab

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EquitiesChina Basic Materials

Tungsten expert call: Supply tightness persists, Asia

seasonal recovery ahead Basic Materials

Sharon Ding

Analyst

sharon.ding@ubs.com

Strict quota enforcement cuts >10ktpa supply; invoicing tightens scrap market +852-2971 6284

We invited Mr. Wei, tungsten expert from Comelan. On the primary supply side, Robin Chen

industry sources point to a moderate 3% YoY (~2kt concentrate) increase in the first Associate Analyst

batch of mining quotas, while the expert expects the second batch to remain broadly flat robin.chen@ubs.com

YoY. However, stricter enforcement against over-quota production has resulted in +852-2971 8678

sample mine output declining by more than 10% YoY in 1H26, with the expert

estimating a full-year impact of over 10kt of concentrate supply. As most over-quota

production is expected to be halted in 2026, China concentrate output is expected to

broadly stabilize into 2027. On the secondary supply side (~29% of 1H26 supply),

tungsten scrap availability has tightened since April 2026 following stricter enforcement

of invoice-compliance requirements.

Seasonally weak demand, with recovery expected in late Aug-Sep

The expert views the weak price momentum in China's tungsten market since July as

primarily seasonal, noting that July-August is traditionally the off-season for

downstream manufacturing activities. Traditional end-markets, which account for the

majority of tungsten consumption, including cutting tools, tungsten ferroalloys and

construction-related applications, remain soft. In contrast, demand from higher-end

applications such as premium cutting tools, PCB micro-drills and tungsten hexafluoride