Initiation of Coverage US Medical Supplies and Devices: Still a Sweet Spot: Diabetes Sector Remains Fundamentally Strong

Research evidence excerpt

Initiation of Coverage US Medical Supplies and Devices: Still a Sweet Spot: Diabetes Sector Remains Fundamentally Strong

US Medical Supplies and Devices UBS Research

CGM Market OUTLOOK

While headline news surrounding manufacturing, FDA warning letters, and consumer

experience plagued the CGM market over the last year, we view the space as a key

growth area for MedTech supported by (1) the large global diabetes market opportunity,

and (2) clear clinical utility with our physician checks and industry literature

overwhelmingly supportive of patient benefit outcomes (and health economic savings)

on CGM. Looking ahead to 2026-2027, the most meaningful catalyst for the market is

likely to come with wide-spread reimbursement access for the NIIT2 (non-insulin

intensive type 2) patient population, with both DXCM and ABT citing the opportunity as

transformative for patients. However, we don’t see expanding access as necessary to

sustain current DD installed base growth and instead see it as an upside driver for

longer-term numbers.

At just 48% penetration today (UBSe) -- across currently reimbursed indications (Type 1,

IIT2, T2 Basal) -- we see the runway for penetration as vast and supportive of growth

momentum over the near- to medium term. Coupled with expanding awareness and

access internationally, continuous innovation, and applications beyond diabetes, we see

the CGM market as a healthy grower with both players well-positioned to reap the

benefits.

DXCM: We project DXCM 2026 sales of $5.2B, reflecting 12% growth (compared to

company guidance of $5.16-$5.22B for the year). Our base case estimates are

supported by our view that double-digit installed base growth should sustain over the

next few years as penetration across all patient types continues to increase. We project a