Global Strategy CTAs‘ Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Update

Research evidence excerpt

Global Strategy CTAs‘ Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Update

Global Research

28 July 2026ab

Global Strategy Global Macro Strategy

GlobalCTAs' Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Update

Nicolas Le Roux

Strategist

Details on the methodology/model can be found in our Q-Series report nicolas.le-roux@ubs.com

+33-14-953 2118

Bhanu Baweja

Extreme risk-on positioning despite range-bound equity markets Strategist

• Equities: Range-bound markets have not yet triggered CTAs de-risking, as favorable bhanu.baweja@ubs.com

base effects and lower realized volatility have kept positioning well supported. This +44-20-7568 6833

support may start to fade in the coming weeks: unless Q2 earnings reignite upside Paul Winter

momentum, CTAs could become meaningful sellers in August, starting with US equities. Analyst

• Bonds: CTAs have tripled their duration underweight, leaving positioning at paul-j.winter@ubs.com

unprecedented levels. From here, the asymmetry is clear: they can only add duration. +61-2-9324 2080

Any rally of more than 15bps from current yield levels is likely to trigger sizeable buying Julien Conzano

flows, equivalent to roughly $100-250m of global DV01. Strategist

• Credit: The setup is similar to equities: sideways price action and extended long julien.conzano@ubs.com

positioning point to growing caution. We expect CTAs to gradually buy back protection +44-20-7567 2067

(~$10m Spd DV01), starting with US and European IG. Gerry Fowler

• FX: Little has changed since our last update: CTAs remain heavily long USD, with Strategist

positioning at the 92nd percentile since 1990. The next adjustment should be a gradual gerry.fowler@ubs.com

reduction in G10 FX shorts, led by commodity currencies and the EUR, while JPY and +44-20-7567 5490

Asia FX ex-CNH remain high-conviction shorts.