Copper: Physical market/inventory tightening outside US

Research evidence excerpt

Copper: Physical market/inventory tightening outside US

Global Research

28 July 2026ab

Copper Equities

GlobalPhysical market/inventory tightening outside US

Basic Materials

Daniel Major

Low inventories outside of US & tighter physical market support LME prices Analyst

One of the abnormal features of the copper bull market over the last 12m has been daniel.major@ubs.com

rising prices and rising visible inventories. In our view the increase in inventories reflects: +44-20-7568 3472

(1) global refined copper market that has been in surplus, largely reflecting sustained Amy Yi Li

strength in refined copper production (mainly in China) despite constrained mine Analyst

production; (2) the impact of potential US tariffs pulling excess refined metal into US. amy-yi.li@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 2064

The copper concentrate/scrap markets have been tightening for some time and whilst Myles Allsop

we acknowledge that refined copper production has consistently positively surprised vs Analyst

myles.allsop@ubs.com

our expectations over the last 2yrs...we believe shortages of inputs (conc & scrap) will

+44-20-7568 1693

see production come under pressure in 2H26. Physical signals in the China market are

already showing tightness is emerging in China, lower refined output in 2H would see George Eadie

the refined market tightening further, supporting LME copper prices. Preferred copper Analyst

george.eadie@ubs.com

stocks: Freeport, First Quantum, Anglo, Teck & Hudbay.

+1-646-996 4596

Tariffs create regional copper markets Alex Stansbury, CFA

Analyst

The impact of US tariffs has seen the majority of visible inventory move into the US. In alex.stansbury@ubs.com

our view the US is more likely to impose tariff policy that keeps most of the metal in the +1-212-882 0097