Mapfre SA: Post 2Q26: Debate shifts to capital stewardship but thesis unchanged

Research evidence excerpt

Mapfre SA: Post 2Q26: Debate shifts to capital stewardship but thesis unchanged

exposed to a softening US retail P&C cycle. In exchange, shareholders inherit a 12/28E 0.43 0.43 0 0.44

c.7ppt increase in leverage & a multi-year deleveraging process that is likely to constrain

special capital returns. While the deal works on paper, the market's negative reaction Qian Lu

potentially reflects a preference for preserving balance sheet flexibility & shareholder Analyst

distributions, with investors appearing more cautious towards leveraged M&A. qian-za.lu@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 4657

Reinsurance: consensus yet to fully reflect pricing headwinds Will Hardcastle, CFA

AnalystWe remain ~2%/7%/4% below consensus EPS for FY26E/FY27E/FY28E, driven primarily

will.hardcastle@ubs.com

by a more cautious view on Mapfre Re. Property reinsurance, which accounts for c.38%

+44-20-7567 9763

of the portfolio, has experienced risk-adjusted pricing declines in the low-to-mid teens at

recent renewals, creating a meaningful earnings headwind in our view. While 2Q26 Nasib Ahmed, FIA

Analystdelivered a strong 94.1% COR, results benefited from below-budget catastrophe

nasib-za.ahmed@ubs.com

activity and the absence of any additional reserve buffer build. We forecast Mapfre Re's +44-20-7568 8231

COR to run 1-2ppts higher than consensus over the next three years, whereas the

market appears to be assuming only modest deterioration despite an increasingly

challenging pricing backdrop. We note every 1ppt of Mapfre Re's COR is worth c.2% of

cons. EPS.

Valuation:11x 27E P/E, 3% 3Y EPS CAGR and yield <5% screens expensive, Sell

Mapfre is trading at 11x FY27E EPS vs 10Y average range of 7.1-10.2x yet delivering

below sector average EPS growth (c.3% next 3Y on UBSe) and all-in yields (4.9%

FY27E).