First Read Lottomatica Group SpA: Q2 in line on revenues but ahead on EBITDA driven by online strength

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Lottomatica Group SpA: Q2 in line on revenues but ahead on EBITDA driven by online strength

gins of 58.5%. Total Q2 online

market share up +1.1ppts YoY to 31.6% with PWO total sports market share at 9.2%, Ben Shelley, ACA

Analystexceeding pre migration level. LTMC outline how tail operator online market share

ben.shelley@ubs.com

continues to decline. Net financial debt equivalent to 2.3x EBITDA (within target range).

+44-20-7568 3957

Slide 10 of the presentation outlines a compounding narrative with regards to earnings

and shareholder returns. Jarrod Castle, CFA

Analyst

jarrod.castle@ubs.com

Q: How would we expect investors to react? +44-20-7568 8883

LTMC shares are up c.+12% YTD but down c.-9% since Q1 results into this release.

Artem Prokopets

Further, LTMC shares trade on a 6.8% FY26 eFCF yield on our estimates amid the

cheapest in the European gaming sector. Against this backdrop, LTMC has delivered artem.prokopets@ubs.com

results in line on revenues and ahead on group EBITDA driven by the higher multiple +44-20-7901 5625

online segment. Within online both revenues and profit margins have beaten

expectations. The top line is also stronger than the data implied, which is a positive

surprise. Taking a step back, in an otherwise volatile sector, LTMC is reiterating already

upgraded guidance, benefitting from sound structural growth drivers, taking market

share YoY, returning cash to shareholders and leverage is within target range. We think

this print underscores its compounding appeal and believe it should be taken well by

investors.

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 1,651 2,020 2,270 2,433 2,632 2,807 2,976 3,164

EBIT (UBS) 451 535 662 772 883 981 1,075 1,179

Net earnings (UBS) 142 187 299 458 539 610 678 754