European Trucks: 2Q26 Trucks Tracker Wk #1-2: Is North America on the search for drivers?

Research evidence excerpt

European Trucks: 2Q26 Trucks Tracker Wk #1-2: Is North America on the search for drivers?

ce for exposure to Dini Magoon

the European truck market, where we see Volvo delivering with its proven margin Analyst

discipline. We are cautiously optimistic on the NA truck market upcycle, as we dini.magoon@ubs.com

await confirmation of EPA27. One growing concern is the potential for driver +44-20-7567 4037

shortages in NA, which could weigh on haulier profitability (driver salaries account Gabriel Huber

for c.25% of a truck's TCO). If driver availability becomes a greater constraint, Associate Analyst

replacement demand could be weaker than expected as carriers prioritise securing gabriel.huber@ubs.com

drivers and maintaining fleet utilisation over renewing their fleets. We note this is a +44-20-7883 0295

theme we discussed in our 2026 Outlook (pg.52).

Key investor questions, with the NA truck market dominating debate

Does the EPA announcement prevent a 2027 order drop? It depends on the

OEMs' approach, in our view. We have heard from Volvo that they will provide the

engines that their customers prefer and this was broadly echoed by Traton.

Interestingly, this marks a different tone from OEMs reportedly preparing to bring

EPA27 engines regardless of the outcome. Should the EPA rules be finalised in their

proposed form, we would expect adoption of the new EPA27 engines to be

gradual through 2027. We believe any OEM failing to offer both solutions would

be at risk of losing market share in North America.

Which EU OEM is best prepared for EPA27? We believe all three major

European OEMs will face additional production costs compared with their current

engine offerings. The key focus will be the incremental cost of compliance,

although the exact amount by OEM remains unclear.