Australian Banks: APAC Focus: Institutional Advantage

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Banks: APAC Focus: Institutional Advantage

Global Research

29 July 2026ab

Australian Banks Equities

AustralasiaAPAC Focus: Institutional AdvantagePlease

Financial

John Storey, CFA

Analyst

john.storey@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 3864

Nicholas Sobolev, CFA

nicholas.sobolev@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 3026

Nic Guesnon, CFA

Strategist

nic.guesnon@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2192

Jason Napier, CFA

jason.napier@ubs.comInstitutionalbanking an overlooked growth segment of the market +44-20-7568 5037

Institutional banking, a +$30B TAM, is an overlooked part of the Australian banking

market, in our view. Cash profits for this segment have grown at an 11% 3yr

CAGR, compared to retail (-6%) and business banking (+9%). Our channel checks

show structural earnings drivers are numerous, including AI, infrastructure, defence

and energy transition amongst others, with upside optionality of ~$85B of lending

not fully priced in, based on our analysis. We expect the further deployment of

capital into institutional as an outcome of servicing a growing client base, with UBS

upgrading EPS by ~2.5% over our forecast period albeit with >7% EPS upside in

our bull-case scenario. We believe Westpac (upgraded to Buy), NAB (Buy-rated),

and ANZ (Neutral-rated) are best placed to capture this opportunity.

Growing institutional banking profits could offset expected retail weakness

Corporate, institutional and investment banking (CIB) is seeing structural tailwinds, and

remains tied to a capex cycle that appears broader and more durable than many

appreciate (here). This should underpin continued lending growth in this segment. It is

becoming clear too from industry releases and discussions with bank mgmt. teams that

mortgages as a product category over the next few years will face pressure from recently