Australian Banks: FY26 Earnings Preview: The good with the bad

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Banks: FY26 Earnings Preview: The good with the bad

Global Research

29 July 2026ab

Australian Banks Equities

AustralasiaFY26 Earnings Preview: The good with the bad

Financial

John Storey, CFA

Australian Bank results kicking off 10 Aug - What to know before you go Analyst

FY26 has been a volatile year for Australian banks, with all areas of banking services and john.storey@ubs.com

client markets under close review from 1) business banking asset quality following the +61-2-9324 3864

Middle East conflict (here, here & here), mortgage growth pressures from tax policy Nicholas Sobolev, CFA

changes (here & here), new entrants to the market (Revolut) and institutional growth Analyst

prospects (here). 1H26 results were mixed, with some beating and some in line while the nicholas.sobolev@ubs.com

quality of earnings varied across our coverage (here). Provision overlays were adjusted up +61-2-9324 3026

prior to 1H results for most banks (ex. ANZ), we also saw a margin trade off for volume

(WBC), while NAB reported a record Q1 result and slightly weaker Q2 earnings.

Operationally, we think investors are primarily focussed on mortgage growth impacts

(latest APRA here) with a keen focus on auction clearing rates and property price

declines (UBS Economic note here).

Where we stand on reporting names: The good with the bad

CBA, JDO and BEN will be reporting FY26 results, while WBC, ANZ and NAB will report

Q3 trading updates. Schedule for company reporting is below on page 2. We summarise

our thoughts leading into earnings on pages 3-5 along with UBS estimates vs consensus

estimates. CBA. We expect to report earnings broadly in-line with consensus, albeit with

lower costs and a smaller impairment charge (10bps vs 11bps in 2H). Key risks for CBA in