First Read Nomura Holdings: Q1 flash: NP much higher than our forecast; growth in Wholesale, stable revenues

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Nomura Holdings: Q1 flash: NP much higher than our forecast; growth in Wholesale, stable revenues

Global Research

29 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesNomura Holdings

Q1 flash: NP much higher than our forecast; Japan

growth in Wholesale, stable revenues Diversified Financial

12-month rating Neutral

12m price target ¥1,600.0

What were the most noteworthy areas in the results?

The Q1 results (earnings materials) surpassed our estimates and were positive overall.

Positives included 1) Global Markets revenue remaining strong, supported by favourable Price (29 Jul 2026) ¥1,573

market conditions; 2) continued growth in stable revenues driven by the expansion of RIC: 8604.T BBG: 8604 JP

recurring-revenue businesses; and 3) annualised ROE rising to 15.4% in Q1. Concerns

Trading data and key metrics

included 1) a qoq decline in Investment Banking revenue, resulting in a pause in the

recent growth trend; and 2) continued mutual fund outflows in the overseas Investment 52-wk range ¥1,626-982

Management business, in line with trends in the US market. Still, Investment Banking Market cap. ¥4,647b/US$28.4b

revenue reached a record high for a first quarter, and overall we think the results were Shares o/s 2,955m (ORD)

strong. Free float 100%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 10,946

How would we expect investors to react? Avg. daily value (m) ¥15,350.6

We expect investors to positively evaluate two aspects of the results. First, the expansion Common s/h equity (03/27E) ¥3926b

of stable revenue businesses. In Wealth Management, net inflows into stable assets P/BV (03/27E) 1.2x

reached a record high, with both stable assets and stable revenue increasing. Assets Tier 1 ratio 13%

under management in Investment Management also reached a new record. Stable

EPS (reported, basic) (¥)