Unum Group: 2Q26: Disability pressure offset by mortality strength

Research evidence excerpt

Unum Group: 2Q26: Disability pressure offset by mortality strength

Global Research

29 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesUnum Group

2Q26: Disability pressure offset by mortality United States

strength Insurance, Life

12-month rating Neutral

12m price target US$94.00

2Q26 op. EPS was $2.16, above our $2.15 and inline w/ cons.

We expect a modestly negative initial reaction to UNM's 2Q26 print driven by

weaker group disability margins offset by better mortality in group life. Price (28 Jul 2026) US$87.93

RIC: UNM.N BBG: UNM US

Group disability pressure was core to our 2Q26 preview caution and related

followup, though the disclosed drivers of the miss are described as driven primarily Trading data and key metrics

by paid family medical leave and previously guided pricing concessions (we had 52-wk range US$92.73-68.55

pointed to economic pressures and employee AI/layoff fear driving uptick in claim Market cap. US$16.2b

incidence and severity and weaker recoveries). . Shares o/s 184m (COM)

Benefit ratio was 65.8%, continuing a trend towards normalization but Free float 100%

roughly 3pts weaker than consensus and the highest benefit ratio since 2022. Avg. daily volume ('000) 486

Avg. daily value (m) US$42.3

We see the weaker result as being somewhat mitigated by similarly weaker

Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$10.8b

disability margins at peers thus far this reporting season, as well as limited

P/BV (12/26E) 1.2x

expectations for a beat in our view.

EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)

We expect the guidance for 2026 to include a higher runrate benefit ratio

12/26E

closer to 65% offset by more favorable assumed group life mortality similar to

UBS Cons.

2Q25 levels. Q1 2.14 2.14

We believe there was an expectation for paid family medical leave to again Q2E 2.15 2.16