LatAm Oil & Gas LightHouse: PBR (2x), BRAV, VBBR, BRKM, Global (4x)

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Oil & Gas LightHouse: PBR (2x), BRAV, VBBR, BRKM, Global (4x)

LatAm Oil & Gas UBS Research

INTEGRATED OIL

Petrobras: Petrobras seeks new export markets amid production

growth; "Keeping up the strong production pace"

Petrobras seeks new export markets amid production growth: Valor reported

that Petrobras is seeking new export markets for its crude oil production as output

continues to grow above domestic refining capacity. According to Logistics and

Commercialization Director Angélica Laureano, the company has been targeting

customers in Asia and Europe, including Japan, while capitalizing on disruptions in

traditional Middle Eastern supply routes.

We view Petrobras’ efforts to expand its export footprint as a positive

development, as a broader geographic diversification of its customer base should

reduce the company's dependence on specific markets, mitigating demand and

disruption-related risks while creating additional commercial opportunities to

place its growing crude oil production.

"Keeping up the strong production pace": Operational figures came in broadly in

line with expectations, leading us to estimate a US$3.3bn div. (3.0% yield) to be

announced in 2Q26. We highlight the +12% QoQ increase in oil exports, increasing

the company’s exposure to the higher Brent price environment, compensating the

softer fuel prices domestically. Overall, we continue to appreciate plan running

ahead of BP guidance, although we view limited upside risks in production for the

remaining of the year, as upcoming units are only expected to come online in late-

2026/early-2027. On top of that, we note that any resolution on Middle East

conflicts could push Brent prices toward lower levels in 2H26 (UBSe US$80/bbl),

further limiting upside risks to current financial estimates.