Hoa Phat Group: Q226: Strong beat on robust domestic demand momentum

Research evidence excerpt

Hoa Phat Group: Q226: Strong beat on robust domestic demand momentum

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 50.0%

Forecast dividend yield 0.5%

Forecast stock return 50.5%

Market return assumption 9.4%

Forecast excess return 41.1%

Company Description

Hoa Phat is Vietnam's leading industrial manufacturer. Established in 1992 as a construction

machinery trading enterprise, the company has diversified its business portfolio to include

steel production (iron and steel; steel products), home appliances, agriculture and real estate.

The organization primarily concentrates on steel production, which accounts for more than

90% of its revenue and profit. The company has been listed on the HCM Stock Exchange

since 2007.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value Hoa Phat Group based on P/BV-ROAE methodology.

The Vietnamese steel industry faces a multi-faceted array of sector-specific and

macroeconomic risks that affect its competitiveness and long-term viability. Regulatory

challenges are also significant, with manufacturers required to adhere to continually evolving

domestic standards in environmental protection, occupational safety and product quality. The

landscape is further complicated by trade protectionism: while local tariffs and anti-dumping

measures may provide a degree of shelter from foreign competition, they risk increasing input

costs and disruptions in supply chains. Internationally, foreign tariffs imposed on Vietnamese

steel exports diminish competitiveness and restrict market access, hampering potential

growth and profitability. These issues are exacerbated by Vietnam’s reliance on imported raw

materials and vulnerability to global trade tension. Environmentally, the sector is characterised