First Read DWS Group: Q2:26 - Weaker performance fees & higher costs drive a headline 9% PBT miss

Research evidence excerpt

First Read DWS Group: Q2:26 - Weaker performance fees & higher costs drive a headline 9% PBT miss

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 4.5%

Forecast dividend yield 11.8%

Forecast stock return 16.3%

Market return assumption 7.7%

Forecast excess return 8.6%

Company Description

DWS is a German-based asset manager with c45% of AuMs sourced from retail clients. DWS

operates a diverse portfolio of products, covering traditional active (equity, fixed income,

cash, multi-asset and systematic/quant), passive (with a focus on sales into EMEA and APAC)

and alternative (real estate, liquid real assets and other) funds.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We utilize a DCF-based valuation model to determine our price target for DWS. In our view,

the main risks affecting DWS are: (1) Greater competition from passive products, reducing

client flows into active products and forcing DWS to adjust its management fees down; (2)

Poor performance from DWS's active funds (relative to peers), which would put DWS's

products on a negative competitive footing relative to other active products; (3) Poor

performance from DWS’s active funds (relative to benchmarks), which would have a negative

impact on DWS’s ability to recognise performance fees; (4) The allocation of investor funds to

bank deposits as rising interest rates make deposits more attractive from a risk/return

perspective, negatively impacting client flows into investment products; (5) Weak market

performance, which reduces DWS’s AUMs and tends to have a negative impact on client

inflows; (6) Increased volatility, which can increase risk aversion from amongst investors; (7)

Outcomes of outstanding regulatory investigations could negatively impact DWS; (8) A