Bellevue Gold: FY27 guidance softer than expected

Research evidence excerpt

Bellevue Gold: FY27 guidance softer than expected

Global Research

28 July 2026ab

Bellevue Gold Equities

AustraliaFY27 guidance softer than expected

Mining

12-month rating Buy

Solid Q and approaching CF inflection point

BGL pre-released a strong JunQ of 41.6koz and finishing FY26 at 144koz, above the 12m price target A$1.60

midpoint of guidance (130–150koz), driven by record mining and processing rates Prior : A$1.80

despite slightly lower milled grades of 4.5g/t versus the March quarter. Today, JunQ AISC

Price (28 Jul 2026) A$1.36

of A$2,604/oz and growth capex of A$20m were broadly in line with expectations,

while cash increased by A$25.7m despite A$82m of hedge book prepayments as the RIC: BGL.AX BBG: BGL AU

company continued to unwind legacy hedge commitments and move closer to its post-

Trading data and key metrics

hedge/debt cash flow inflection point. At the recent pace of ~20–30koz of hedge

52-wk range A$1.99-0.78

reductions per qtr, its hedge book could be fully extinguished by the end of FY27.

However, FY27 guidance of 150–170koz (at AISC of A$2,800–3,100/oz) was below Market cap. A$2.00b/US$1.40b

both UBS expectations and the company's previously stated target of 175–195kozpa. Shares o/s 1,476m (ORD)

Reflecting the lower production and higher cost assumptions (UBSe 165koz at A$2,870/ Free float 100%

oz FY27e; 171koz at A$2,760/oz FY28e), we reduce our earnings forecasts -8%/-11% Avg. daily volume ('000) 6,555

in FY27/28e, although we continue to view BGL as attractively valued given its strong Avg. daily value (m) A$9.3

FCF yield outlook of 15/11% in FY27/28e and exploration upside, maintaining our Buy Common s/h equity (06/26E) A$0.87b

rating with a revised price target of A$1.60/sh (-11%). P/BV (06/26E) 2.3x

Net debt to EBITDA (06/26E) 0.7x