Global Macro Chart of the Day: (#133): US electricity production - it‘s not China but it‘s not bad

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Chart of the Day: (#133): US electricity production - it‘s not China but it‘s not bad

Global Research

28 July 2026ab

Global Macro Chart of the Day Economics

Global(#133): US electricity production - it's not China

but it's not bad Arend Kapteyn

Economist

arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

Non-coal electricity production in the US is growing at a healthy pace

It is widely accepted that China is less electricity-constrained than the US, and that this

gives it an edge in the AI race. But how much? There is no doubt that China is an

electricity-generation behemoth. In absolute terms, it produces roughly twice as much

electricity as the US and adds the equivalent of the UK's or Germany's annual electricity

generation to its grid every year. However, China's population is more than four times

larger than America's. On a per capita basis, the US still produces considerably more

electricity than China: roughly 13.8 TWh per million people versus 7.5 TWh.

More importantly, headline growth rates understate the pace of change in the US power

sector. Total electricity generation has grown by just 0.5% per year over the past 15

years, but that largely reflects the replacement of coal. Generation from non-coal

sources, primarily natural gas and renewables, has grown at an annual rate of 3.4% over

the same period. Granted, that is not as fast as China's 6.3% annual growth in electricity

production, but it is still a respectable pace, particularly given that coal generation

cannot fall much further.

Another factor is the electricity intensity of GDP: China's electricity intensity is 2 times

higher than that of the US, reflecting its much larger manufacturing base. Suppose the

US requires 1 unit of electricity to produce 1 unit of GDP. With GDP growth of 2%,