US Daily Data Recap: Q2 GDP estimated at 1.6% & lower confidence

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap: Q2 GDP estimated at 1.6% & lower confidence

Powered by Lab Global28 JulyResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

US Daily Data Recap Economics

AmericasQ2 GDP estimated at 1.6% & lower confidence

Amanda Wilcox

Economist

Taking on board today's trade and inventories data for June we took down our estimate amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

for Q2 real GDP by a tenth to 1.6% (saar). The data will be released on Thursday. Trade

and inventories are both expected to weigh on growth in the second quarter, and Jonathan Pingle

despite the weaker overall pace of growth, we expect real consumer spending Economist

accelerated up 2.6% (saar) relative to just 0.5% (saar) in Q1. Business fixed investment jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

we expect remained robust too.

Alan Detmeister

Conference Board consumer confidence slipped -1.4 points to 90.8 in July, slightly alan.detmeister@ubs.com

below consensus, as a weaker assessment of current conditions offset stable +1-212-713 1222

expectations. Higher gasoline prices and ongoing Middle East tensions likely weighed on

Abigail Wattsentiment during the survey period, in our view. Labor market perceptions softened,

with the closely watched labor market differential falling to its lowest level since abigail.watt@ubs.com

February 2021, and references to jobs and unemployment increased in write-in +1-212-882 6929

responses. Despite the softer confidence reading, consumers were relatively more

Jalen Nichols

upbeat about spending, with stronger vacation and travel plans, stable intentions to

purchase major appliances, and increased expected spending on services such as jalen.nichols@ubs.com

restaurants, travel, and entertainment over the next six months. +1-212-882 6905