Global Macro Chart of the Day (#134): Government intervention drives wide petrol-price divergence

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Chart of the Day (#134): Government intervention drives wide petrol-price divergence

Global Research

29 July 2026ab

Global Macro Chart of the Day Economics

Global(#134): Government intervention drives wide

petrol-price divergence Arend Kapteyn

Economist

arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

Significant dispersion in the pass-through from oil prices to pump prices

In an earlier Chart of the Day, we showed that physical fuel shortages in Asia following

the outbreak of the Middle East conflict had little relationship with petrol prices at the

pump (one of the most important pass-through mechanisms to consumer inflation).

While Vietnam and the Philippines were experiencing some of the largest increases at

the time (early April), the median increase across Asia was broadly in line with Europe

and well below the US, where lower fuel taxation allows oil-price movements to pass

through to gasoline prices more quickly.

Today's chart highlights how differently countries have responded to the shock. At the

median, petrol prices in Asia are up just 12% YTD, compared with 19% in Europe and

43% in the Americas. There are still Asian outliers, notably Malaysia (which now has a

more targeted subsidy regime), but the Philippines and Vietnam, which recorded some

of the largest increases globally in early April, have moved into the lower half of the

distribution. In the Philippines, this largely reflects a deregulated fuel market, where

pump prices track international prices (up, down and back up). But for Vietnam this

largely reflects government intervention: after the initial price surge, the government

subsidized prices, lowered import duties, and cut taxes and VAT on fuel products.

Other examples of significant government intervention are Ireland and Australia. Ireland