GCC SAB de CV (GCC.MX): Keep the Buy rating, with an eye on 2027

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GCC SAB de CV (GCC.MX): Keep the Buy rating, with an eye on 2027

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29 Jul 2026 17:45:14 ET │ 12 pages

GCC SAB de CV (GCC.MX)

Keep the Buy rating, with an eye on 2027

CITI'S TAKE

GCC’s investment case lacks near-term momentum in 2H26, but the ramp-

up of the Odessa expansion plant is already underway and should provide a

significant EBITDA contribution in 2027. We also see management Buy

becoming more active on the inorganic growth front, which we believe will Price (29 Jul 26 14:00) P$202.77

be well received by investors, as the acquisition done year-to-date has been

Target price P$240.00executed at very reasonable valuations. At the same time, these efforts help

address concerns regarding the company’s inefficient capital structure. We Expected share price return 18.4%

reiterate our Buy rating. Expected dividend yield 1.1%

Expected total return 19.5%

Model update — We update our GCC model after an In-line 2Q26. We keep our Buy

rating and our target price of P$240.0/share. We see the stock trading at 6.7x-5.0x Market Cap P$68,415M

2026-27. US$3,924M

2026 Adj. EBITDA points to $523m — implying mid-single-digit YoY growth, but

2.7% below our previous forecast and consensus estimates, as we reduce our 2H26

EBITDA expectations to reflect Odessa ramp-up costs that, according to

management, will be concentrated in 3Q26. We remain constructive on 2027, as Price Performance

Odessa’s utilization is expected to increase progressively over the next 18 months, (RIC: GCC.MX, BB: GCC* MF)

reaching full capacity by year-end 2027. We forecast 2027 Adj. EBITDA of $609m,

assuming an average utilization rate of approximately 60%.

More about 2026 forecast changes — We have revised the geographic EBITDA

contribution, as we now understand that the Odessa ramp-up will result in