Americana Restaurants (6015.SE): Model update post strong 2Q26 and upgraded margin outlook; Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Americana Restaurants (6015.SE): Model update post strong 2Q26 and upgraded margin outlook; Buy

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29 Jul 2026 13:08:52 ET │ 17 pages

Americana Restaurants (6015.SE)

Model update post strong 2Q26 and upgraded margin outlook; Buy

CITI'S TAKE

Buy Updating estimates post 2Q26, which marked AMR's third consecutive

earnings beat. While sales growth moderated by 2pp QoQ to +11% YoY, Price (29 Jul 26 15:00) SAR2.25

profitability again surprised positively. Management highlighted Target price SAR2.68↑

improving July trading trends in both the UAE and KSA, while reiterating from SAR2.45

FY26 guidance for 120-130 net store openings and MSD LFL growth. Expected share price return 19.1%

Margin guidance was upgraded, with AMR now expecting FY26 net profit Expected dividend yield 4.0%

margin expansion of 100-150bps YoY, while on the call mgmt. sounded

Expected total return 23.1% increasingly confident that recent margin gains are driven by structural

Market Cap SAR18,953M improvements rather than temporary factors. We raise our 2026-27E

EBITDA/EPS estimates by c.2%/7%, respectively, and lift our target price US$5,049M

to SAR2.68 from SAR2.45 (implying c.21x 2026E P/E). Management also

indicated that normalization in consumer and tourism activity, particularly

in the UAE, would represent upside to current expectations. Reiterate Buy.

Maxim NekrasovAC

+44-20-7500-7264

Topline trends — Topline growth remained healthy at +11.% YoY in 2Q26 with UAE maxim.nekrasov@citi.com

growth moderating to +7% from +12% in 1Q26, while KSA improved to +9% from

+6% in 1Q26. Management highlighted improving July trends in both markets

benefiting from product innovation and commercial initiatives. Pizza Hut, which had

been more affected by weaker family dining traffic, also showed a notable recovery