Meta Marshall on Cybersecurity AI Impact Covering Frontier Cyber Models, Hugging Face Breach, PANW CRWD OKTA ZS FTNT | Ep. 321

Research evidence excerpt

Meta Marshall on Cybersecurity AI Impact Covering Frontier Cyber Models, Hugging Face Breach, PANW CRWD OKTA ZS FTNT | Ep. 321

IdeaMValuation Methodology and Risks

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD.O)

Our $227 PT is based on 60X CY30e FCF of $5.21B, discounted back at 12%. This multiple

implies ~33X EV/CY27 Sales, a premium to Large Cap SaaS/Security peers.

Risks to Upside

n Stronger than expected endpoint security demand remains elevated due to rising cyber

threats

n TAM expansion opportunities (XDR, Identity, Cloud Workload Protection) materialize

faster than expected

Risks to Downside

n Competition makes new customer acquisition tougher

n Lower cost alternatives commoditize CRWD's premium pricing

n Softer hiring environment pressures upsell activity

Okta, Inc. (OKTA.O)

Based on 18x Base Case CY27e FCF and implying ~5X EV/CY27e sales, a discount to the

broader Security group to account for the more mature growth profile.

1) Stronger upsell traction with Auth0; 2) Emerging opportunity around securing external

users (customers, partners) comes into fruition faster than expected; 3) Material pickup in

activity around emerging governance and PAM use cases.

1) Broader security spending slows materially; 2) increased competition from larger vendors

like Microsoft; 3) execution issues take longer than expected to resolve

Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW.O)

Based on 52x Base Case 2028e FCF per share of $7.05; this multiple is a premium to similarly

growing large cap software peers.

n Stronger firewall refresh cycle and higher subscription attach rates

n Faster uptake of new Cloud-based Next-Gen Security solutions such as Cortex

(AI-Powered Security Analytics) and Prisma SASE

n Slowing firewall refreshes could drive a greater than expected impact to PANW's top

line growth