NSE Pre-IPO (Part II): A deep-dive on the key debates - Market volume growth, market shares, regulations & more

Research evidence excerpt

NSE Pre-IPO (Part II): A deep-dive on the key debates - Market volume growth, market shares, regulations & more

29 July 2026

India Capital Markets & Insurance

NSE Pre-IPO (Part II): A deep-dive on the key debates - Market

volume growth, market shares, regulations & more

This deep-dive addresses the key debates around NSE’s (not listed) proposed IPO - market Manas Agrawal

+91 226 842 1446 volumes, market share movements, regulations & tactical concerns (link to Part I primer).

manas.agrawal@bernsteinsg.com We forecast a slowdown in market volumes for options (+10% for FY27, Q1FY27 at

+31% YoY). We factor in lower VIX (volatility) and a ~10% staggered impact from tighter

Himank Sangai domestic prop-leverage. NSE has lost options market share. We explain the drivers of

+91 226 842 1452

himank.sangai@bernsteinsg.com such losses in our calendar-day market-share framework (conditions persist). For now, we

work with the assumption that regulations will not change the dynamics drastically, based

on our understanding of the regulator’s perspective and market participant behavior (a key

risk to monitor).

1.Options market volume: We think market options volumes should grow ~10% YoY for

FY27 (~INR 210 Tn total premium turnover, or INR 850 Bn daily premium). This is softer

than Q1FY27 volumes (+31% YoY). The remaining quarters in FY27 face headwinds from

lower VIX, tighter domestic-prop leverage & a higher base. We forecast ~10% growth in

options volumes for FY28/29 on this base. We expect volumes to remain concentrated

in weekly contracts & the last week of monthly contracts (weekly-contracts, disguised as

monthly contracts, ‘WDAM’). We consider volumes in the monthly index options, excluding

the week of expiry, as true ‘monthly volumes’ (a 90/10 mix).