PACCAR Inc (PCAR.O): Somewhat Mixed 2Q, but EPA Proposal Teeing Up Better ‘27

Research evidence excerpt

PACCAR Inc (PCAR.O): Somewhat Mixed 2Q, but EPA Proposal Teeing Up Better ‘27

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29 Jul 2026 04:00:00 ET │ 13 pages

PACCAR Inc (PCAR.O)

Somewhat Mixed 2Q, but EPA Proposal Teeing Up Better ‘27

CITI'S TAKE

We have updated our model following PCAR’s 2Q results. We have raised our

2026E adj. EPS to $5.95 from $5.60 and our 2027E adj. EPS to $6.80 from Neutral

$6.45, primarily on higher truck volume/margin assumptions. Our 2028

Price (28 Jul 26 16:00) US$138.21EPS of $7.50 is little changed. PCAR guided ~flattish QoQ TP&O margins in

3Q despite expectations for volume/deliveries to increase sequentially, Target price US$140.00↑

which management attributed to some expected temporary mix impact. from US$125.00Encouragingly, management sounded confident in margin improving

sequentially in 4Q. PCAR’s view that the recent EPA’27 proposal is likely to Expected share price return 1.3%

have a positive impact to truck market volumes in 2027 and management Expected dividend yield 2.0%

talking to largely producing its current engines aligned with our latest Expected total return 3.2%expectations (here). We maintain our Neutral rating on PCAR shares as they

currently trade at ~18.5x our 2028E adj. EPS of $7.50. We raise our price Market Cap US$72,738M

target to $140 from $125 on higher estimates.

3Q26 Guide — On the call, PCAR guided for 3Q deliveries of ~42k (up ~3k units

sequentially), which we think was in-line to slightly above investor expectations. Price Performance

Despite the sequentially higher deliveries/volume guidance, PCAR guided to 3Q (RIC: PCAR.O, BB: PCAR US)

TP&O gross margin of ~14.5% (~flattish QoQ), which management attributed to a

multi-faceted mix impact (higher truck vs parts vol and likely higher tractor vs

vocational production).