Nike: What does the China reset mean for the business?

Research evidence excerpt

Nike: What does the China reset mean for the business?

29 July 2026

Aneesha Sherman

+1 917 344 8457

U.S. Apparel & Specialty Retail aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com

Nike Inc Jessica Tian

+1 917 344 8413

Rating jessica.tian@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Jed Hodulik

Price Target +1 917 344 8594

jed.hodulik@bernsteinsg.com

NKE 68.00 USD (72.00 OLD)

Nike is making an aggressive move to reset its China distribution, eliminating partner-operated

Close Date 28 Jul 2026

online sales completely to improve quality and full-price sales. We break down the growth

NKE Close Price (USD) 43.05

components of the China business to estimate the qualitative and quantitative impact on Nike’s

Price Target (USD) 68.00

business and the broader competitive landscape.

Upside/(Downside) 58%

Nike is completely eliminating its Wholesale online business in China, as well as 52-Week Range 80.17/40.00

cutting back low-quality DTC online sales. This is not a DTC-focused move, but rather SPX 7,428.78

an effort to reduce low-quality online sales (e.g. deep discounts, gray market, third party FYE May

resellers, etc) to improve brand equity and full-price selling. Div Yield 3.8%

Market Cap (USD) (M) 63,865

We model a low-teens headwind to China growth, but stronger margin recovery. While EV (USD) (M) 65,871

the inventory liquidations and buy-backs in China are largely done, this move adds another Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

big step-down in sales for FY27: We model a low-teens decline for China, i.e. a 2 ppt drag Absolute (%) (32.4) 5.6 (30.8) (45.7)

on total company growth. The offset is stronger China margins from higher quality sales (we SPX (%) 8.5 1.0 6.5 16.3

model +200 bps in FY27) making double-digit margins more achievable mid-term. Relative (%) (40.9) 4.6 (37.3) (61.9)