US Consumer Tracker (2Q26): Resilient but value seeking consumer amid continued inflation

Research evidence excerpt

US Consumer Tracker (2Q26): Resilient but value seeking consumer amid continued inflation

I as consumers weigh restaurant

steak occasions against soaring grocery beef prices. We stay constructive on SBUX,

Jeremy Miles, CFA CMG, and CAVA given affluent-consumer exposure and company-specific drivers. In Food

+1 917 344 8370 Distribution, soft traffic is a modest case-volume headwind, but elevated freight/food jeremy.miles@bernsteinsg.com

inflation reinforces scale advantages at USFD, PFGC, and SYY.

Cinnie Lin

+1 917 344 8567 For US Alcohol, macro poses a headwind, with consumers prioritizing affordability. US beer

cinnie.lin@bernsteinsg.com was meaningfully impacted by higher gas prices in Q2, though we remain constructive on

STZ (accelerated share gains) and BUD. We have limited conviction in TAP (weak category

Jessica Tian growth exposure) and SAM (topline uncertainty). Within spirits, we sit on the sidelines for

+1 917 344 8413

jessica.tian@bernsteinsg.com BF (gross margin compression), but like DEO over the medium-term (all eyes on August 6th

CMD, with special focus on affordability initiatives)

Jed Hodulik

+1 917 344 8594 In U.S. Food, Q2 saw a meaningful convergence in FAFH vs. FAH inflation. This

jed.hodulik@bernsteinsg.com

convergence could weigh on grocery store traffic at the margin. SNAP spending cutbacks

are also beginning to have an impact. It may be hard for these companies to absorb yet Yolanda Zhang

+1 917 344 8346 another round of inflation while consumer price sensitivity remains acute. We favor MDLZ

yolanda.zhang@bernsteinsg.com and SJM, based on favorable overseas and category exposures.

Matthew Cheung In US Beverages and HPC, we continue to see Beverages companies as best-positioned

+44 20 7676 6809 for capturing growth.