2Q26 EBITDA beat, Net Debt Miss

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 EBITDA beat, Net Debt Miss

Update

July 29, 2026 06:06 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MBefesa SA | Europe Adahna Ekoku

Equity Analyst

2Q26 EBITDA beat, Net Debt Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.comAlain Gabriel, CFA +44 20 7425-0578

Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.com +44 20 7425-8959

Miss Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Ferdinand Huber

Research Associate

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Befesa SA (BFSA.DE, BFSA GY)

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Metals & Mining | Luxembourg

Stock Rating Overweight

Key Takeaways Industry View In-Line

Price target €37.00

We expect the shares to modestly outperform on the 5% EBITDA beat and Shr price, close (Jul 28, 2026) €34.45

52-Week Range €37.40-25.64

reaffirmed 2026 outlook. Mkt cap, curr (mn) €1,378

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* €471

No changes to 2026 guidance, 10% H2 vs H1 recovery achievable in our view. EV, curr (mn)* €1,946

2Q26 EBITDA of €66mn beat consensus on Steel Dust/Salt Slags, net debt miss * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

on higher NWC build, but 2026 leverage/capex/OCF guidance unchanged.

2026 guidance unchanged: Befesa reiterated its FY EBITDA guidance of €250-

270mn (consensus and MSe at €265mn). We note to reach the midpoint this implies

a ~10% improvement in H2 vs H1. For H2, the company notes steel dust volumes are

expected to remain stable in Europe/Asia, while US volumes continue to ramp. In

Aluminium volumes are expected to remain broadly stable, with profitability

improving gradually from the 2025 trough. All other guidance remains unchanged.