Japan Summer School: Retail (Department Stores / Specialty Stores / Athleisure)

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Summer School: Retail (Department Stores / Specialty Stores / Athleisure)

FoundationM

Key Focus: In a nutshell, deepening polarization

Longer term, we expect increasing polarization of consumption from the Recent increases in the prices of food and daily consumption items

standpoints of both individual spending & demographics, with have led to changes in consumption styles, which we expect to persist

department stores & discounters as the likely beneficiaries. as a sticky trend.

TDB survey of trends in price revisions at 195 leading food cos.

Sustainable management under inflation requires more capabilities:

While food retailers can offer stable revenue, the business demands 9,000

both labor and capital investment, and competition between retailers is 8,000 25,768CY2022items 32,396CY2023items 12,520CY2024items 20,609CY2025items

unlikely to ease soon. To stay profitable, retailers must increase the 7,000 Avg. rise 14% Avg. rise 15% Avg. rise 17% Avg. rise 15%

share of high-margin food items, strengthen non-food merchandising, 6,000 CY2026

and focus on new revenue streams like retail media and productivity 5,000 Cumu 14,902 items

4,000 improvements. Due to shifting consumer needs and rising construction Avg. rise 14%

costs, store formats are trending toward smaller sizes and more 3,000

localized trade areas. Revenue drivers such as private brands and retail 2,000

media are likely to benefit large-scale operators more significantly. 1,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11

Super-luxury

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: TDB (2026/6/30), Morgan Stanley Research

Consumer Sentiment Recovering Gradually After Sharp Deterioration in

April

50.0

Advancing polarization:

Edge accessible at the Selective consumption in the 45.0